[Sim]

The German center-left Social Democrats (SPD) are in trouble -- polls show their party at 25% only, 12% behind Chancellor Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU).

In the moment, it looks like they have hardly a chance of winning the next elections planned for 2009 against popular Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU -- especially since in direct comparison, even SPD supporters would rather vote for Angela Merkel than for SPD chairman Kurt Beck as Chancellor.


These are dark days for Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD). The center-left party, a junior partner in Germany's grand coalition government, is struggling to define what it stands for. It is saddled with an unpopular leader and is losing voters to the newly founded Left Party. Now the SPD has failed to get its proposal for a minimum wage accepted in marathon talks with its coalition partner, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU). No wonder its ratings are going through the floor.

According to a new poll published Wednesday, the SPD now has approval ratings of only 25 percent -- its lowest value since the general elections in September 2005. The party has lost two percentage points just since last week.

The poll, conducted by the company Forsa, also shows that the CDU has gained one percentage point and is now at 37 percent -- far ahead of its beleaguered coalition partner. This is a big change of fortunes for the SPD, which was practically neck and neck with the Christian Democrats back in 2005, winning 34.2 percent of the vote at the parliamentary elections, just one percentage point behind the combined vote for the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU.

The other winner in the new poll is the Left Party, which has ratings of 12 percent, putting it ahead of both of Germany's traditional contenders for the position of third party, the liberal Free Democratic Party and the Greens, who each have 10 points. The Left Party is attracting voters from the left wing of the SPD, who are dissatisfied with the party's move to the center in recent years.

The disappointing poll results reflect increasing dissatisfaction with the SPD, who are currently at odds with the CDU over several key policy issues.

The SPD failed to get their proposal for an across-the-board hourly minimum wage of €7.50 accepted at a coalition "summit" held Monday and Tuesday. Instead, the coalition partners agreed to introduce a minimum wage for more industry sectors. Currently only the construction industry and cleaning workers enjoy a minimum wage. The actual sectors which will be affected will be decided later in talks with management and employees.

The CDU argue that a minimum wage would lead to job losses. The SPD were hoping that the proposal might help revive their flagging fortunes -- recent polls suggest that as many as 70 percent of Germans support the introduction of a minimum wage. The compromise is seen by many as a victory for the CDU. (...)


SPD chairman Kurt Beck is facing the lowest approval rate since he is holding this position

full article here


Poll by Forsa Institute 6/19/2007:

CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats; center-right) -- 37%
SPD (Social Democrats; center-left) -- 25%
Left Party (left populist socialists) -- 12%
Green Party (center-left environmentalists) -- 10%
FDP (Free Democrats; libertarian) -- 10%
other parties -- 6%

source

According to this poll, the center-right camp of CDU/CSU and libertarian FDP reaches 47%, the same as the left camp of SPD, Greens and Left Party -- but since both SPD and Left Party deny the possibility of a coalition, this would likely mean a continuation of the "Great Coalition" of CDU/CSU and SPD, or a change to a center-right coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP.


The SPD is facing the problem of being attacked from both right and left -- the formation of the populist Left Party is putting severe pressure on the SPD in favor of more social policies.

At the same time, the center-right CDU/CSU and Chancellor Merkel seem to earn all laurels for the successes of the governing "Great Coalition" of CDU/CSU and SPD.

What should the SPD do? Their only chance, it seems, lies in opening the party for a possible coalition with the Left Party -- but this is a possibility SPD chairman Beck categorically denies.

This post has been edited by Sim: 20 June 2007 - 08:25 AM